2024’s shifting storylines

With the general elections slated until 2024, this seems like a possibility. The personality of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is at the centre of much of the buzz surrounding the Bharatiya Janata Party’s popularity. Because Mr. Modi exudes a larger-than-life presence, this government appears determined and authoritative. When he was elected, he had the silhouette of a leader who could think assertively and produce noticeable results. Expectations of instantaneous and dramatic outcomes from Mr. Modi and his government led to appreciation for his intimidating personality. However, as we get closer to 2024, we would be delusional if we thought we were making progress. There haven’t been any notable developments, prospects haven’t grown as promised, and goals are still unmet. The public’s opinion of the prime minister as authoritative could evolve into one of despotism. Sometimes being decisive may across as haughtiness or a failure to inspire others. This is seen in the failure of cooperative federalism and the inability to reach an agreement on policy by bringing along Chief Ministers who are not members of the BJP. People are constantly looking for explanations as to why they formerly held certain beliefs. Some people could believe they misjudged Mr. Modi and start to view all politicians the same way.

However, the majority may claim that he is a well-meaning leader who is simply not as competent as they believed, or that he still wishes to do good, but the clique around him prevents him from doing so. In this case, we need to alter the entire institution in order to punish those who surround Mr. Modi rather than Mr. Modi himself. The story about mobilisation around Hindu identity may alter, just as the story about the leader may. Being a Hindu, according to the BJP, frequently entails being combative with unfairly cosseted minorities.  Many people believe they are slaves in their own country. The dictatorship has done a good job of mentally empowering the society by radicalising castes and legalising rudeness through anti-elitist discourse. Since they have been in power for almost ten years, Hindus can no longer assert that they are feeble, impotent and defenseless.

However, the Modi administration vacillates between characterizing Hindus as being vulnerable (by instilling a strong sense of apprehension in them) and as being strong (by enjoining them to engage in combat against a interlocutor). The BJP supported the safe return of Kashmiri Pandits as part of its 2019 election manifesto, as well as “the return of Kashmiri Pandits to the land of their ancestors with complete dignity, security, and secure livelihood in its election manifesto from 2014. However, as a result of demonetisation’s failure and the weakening of Article 370’s anti-terrorism provisions, militancy is on the rise and Kashmiri Pandits are feeling apprehensive than ever.

During the Delhi Assembly elections, we witnessed this. BJP officials called anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act demonstrators “traitors” and demanded that they be shot dead during the last stretch of the election campaign. The party also attempted to turn the election into yet another Hindu-Muslim conflict. Media frenzy and inciting dread didn’t work. In fact, the BJP’s hysteria may have even worked against them, as Home Minister Amit Shah stated after the polls. During the West Bengal Assembly elections, a similar incident occurred. As Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee worked hard to defeat anti-incumbency, the BJP started out with an advantage.

Finally, despite being pursued, involved in cases, and degraded in Parliament, the Opposition parties continue to be narrative-less and illiterate. Even though these actions seem very harsh, they appear to be carried out with the proper intentions when public confidence in the government is high. People also love laughing at the expense of the opposition leaders as a way to make fun of the “social elites.” However, when people start to experience a sort of existential crisis and concerns about declining standards of living start to surface, they start to believe that the Opposition is being unfairly targeted. They believe that diminished opposition undermines democracy. This sensation is starting to surface. Nitish Kumar, the leader of the JD(U), surprised many people and delighted the opposition by upsetting the NDA in Bihar.

People are still trying to come to terms with the fact that those they trusted have let them down while those they don’t trust are promising better things. Parties like the Aam Aadmi Party have honoured some of their promises. The outcomes of the forthcoming Assembly elections will serve as a signpost for future events.